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Forum General When will supply exploit be fixed? (Golden Rainbow)

When will supply exploit be fixed? (Golden Rainbow)

C
coolwind (Golden Rainbow)
18 Feb 2009 17:20 Link
wasn't asking for any help
Q
quaxocal (Golden Rainbow)
18 Feb 2009 19:10 Link
Fred, that should read -70%, not -25%.


You know, for all of your dislike toward me, you fail to realize that alot of the things I post or point out, are meant to help all players. Exchange of information is good. Some things which I know, I choose not to share mainly because I haven't 100% tested them, or designed a good way of doing it that doesn't require tedious work. There are a few nice things I have in the works, but haven't posted yet because I'm not 100% sure I am correct. I don't have Excel and other programs to assist me with my work. Its just me and my brain and windows calculator.

For the record, missile interceptors doesn't benefit much from the method you describe in the thread. I wouldn't consider it worth it to set up and maintain.

Q
F
FredMark (Little Upsilon)
18 Feb 2009 22:48 Link
First of all Q I do not have any strong negative feelings towards you. In fact, I find you most insightful and intelligent individual in this game. Under different circumstances, I can see as both benefiting from each other.
I have not found -70%. As of late I found several products broke level 0f -30% and those on GR are:
Attack Torpedoes -31%
Uranium -32%
Radar Planes -32%
Attack Boats -32%
Cotton -32%
Seals Units -33%
Cocoa -33%
Beans -33%
Airplanes -35%
Cargo Airplanes -35%
However, moving weighted averages still within range of 25. And you know as well as do how volatility plays the role in the pricing model they implemented.

In any case, worst for the 5 game years weighted average (by units) ending yesterday was
Offensive Military Airports -28% 90%
Where 90% was average 5 years surplus factor.

However, for all intends and purposes,it is absolutely unusual case.

On a side note, It is also can be unusual on up side nowadays, such as:

Elementary schools 78% -130% 107%

Where 78% is 2 years weighted average price premium,
-130% 2 years average demand factor
and 107% is price factor as of game month 7-2622 (last).

And I have never seen even spiked price factor ever reaching -40%. I also have not seen prices topping 100% price premium till 3 days ago.

As for MI
Base cost of materials for missile interceptors is
Missle Interseptors 248372500 (in base prices of components)
and it was Missle Interseptors 412560540 in market prices on the same months listed above.
Assume you agree on quality impact on price of 0.85 you will be saving at base price - that would consititute absolutely worst case scenario on savings (248372500*0.62*0.85)=130892307.5 or 131 mil (much less than a billion, but very respectful.
If if you disagree that there quality impact adjustment, and assume 296% hard cap (so factor remains one), you actual saving would be absolutely best scenario on savings:
412560540*0.65=268164351 or 268mil. And that is 25% premium and it does add up. So, if W3C consider your method not to be an exploit, I would consider expand your method to missiles as well.

BTW, I used 65% savings as it was demonstrated in the first post.

Hope it helps.
F
FredMark (Little Upsilon)
18 Feb 2009 23:02 Link
Well, I found absolutely worst product is in WG
Soybeans -31% -38% 46%
Where
-31 is last price factor
-38 is 5 years average price factor
46% is surplus ratio
J
Jack Frost (Little Upsilon)
19 Feb 2009 11:49 Link
Q about not having Excel hit me up some time I have something you might like :) and trust me bud you deserve it.

Fredmark, munitions corps are not currently designed to turn much of a profit if any at all check your finances your probably losing money out of those corps.


With Regards,
Dragoon
F
FredMark (Little Upsilon)
19 Feb 2009 18:11 Link
Missiles do make good profit.

They are somewhat disadvantageous because they are low-volumetric and cost of salaries somewhat high, but their price premium practically never fall below 65% due to demand factor over 100% and high volatility:

This is my statement for C3 Republic of Nelra on LU Missle Interseptors (41% resource used, 30% tax). I do not use supply trick.

Products Sold Current Month 0.00M SC$
Cash Available Now 28,299.25M SC$ Click to see history

Products Sold Last Year 44,102.30M SC$
Profit Last Year 8,802.60M SC$
Net Profit Last Year 6,161.82M SC$
Products Sold Last Month 3,484.38M SC$ Click to see history
Profit Last Month 606.61M SC$ Click to see history
Net Profit Last Month 606.61M SC$ Click to see history
Assets 77,024.28M SC$ Click to see history
Market Value 386,832.39M SC$ Click to see history
Outstanding Loans 0.00M SC$ Click to see history
Value of Supplies 5,792.05M SC$ Click to see history
Production Last Month 77 Click to see history
Production Level Last Month 118.30 % Click to see history
Employment Level Last Month 100.00 % Click to see history
Production Process Quality 225 Click to see history
Quality of the Product 333.0 Click to see history
Production Process Effectivity 225 Click to see history
Welfare Index 118.3

I do use a spreadsheet:
C3 profitability of Missle Intereptors calculation based on average cost of materials over 2 years, according to it:

Product Missile Interceptors
Market Profit $405
Base Profit $647
Price Factor A2 70%
Surplus Factor A2 -260%
Capacity Factor 1138
Capacity Change 2Y 67
Price F Last 69%
Surplus F Last -263%
Price F A5 70%
Surplus F A5 -332%
Capacity Change 5Y 53

Where
Market Profit is profit that calculated based on market prices (average 2 years) of missiles and all components (but does not account on savings from trade strategy).
Base Profit assumes the same bu all materials bought at base price
Price factor A2 is percentile difference between market and base price (A2 stands for A-average 2-2 years).
Surplus factor is percentile value of surplus divided by supply (so, in this instance, shortfall was 2.6 times of supply)
Capacity factor. It is a number that calculates how many fully upgraded corps (producing at 160% efficiency) is needed in order to fully absorb shortfall
Capacity change 2Y stands for how much shortfall changed over 2 years, in terms of fully upgraded corps. It does not necessary mean that there was 67 net change in corps, it may mean that demand has fallen or W3C injection of supply.
Data "last" and "5" is the same reflecting very last value and averages over 5 years.

How market and base profit are calculated:
It assumes 225/225 C3 with, in this case, Salary level 301% (the one I use at LU), fixed cost 19M, tax 30% and resources used 41%.
It assumes quality impact on price at 85% and salary impact on productivity at 4% per 100.
Market profit calculates actual cost of all materials, but does not take into consideration trade strategy. As far as materials are trading at premium here, you see 250mil less market profit compare to base profit. In some instances, particularly on WG, you see reverse because a lot of products are selling below base.

As you can see, the worst setting on C3 still gives you 14% on turnover and will make you 4.2T per game year on 700 C3 corps.
It is 4 net coins on WG, GR and FB,
5 net coins on KB and
6 net coins on LU.

When you apply supply exploit, you get about 34% more profit, due to high cost of materials.